Be Aware: Active Weather Tonight | News – WPSD Local 6
Meteorologist
A warm front is working its way across the area this afternoon with a few heavy showers and rumbles of thunder. Dew points and winds will then increase heading into this evening as the atmosphere becomes modestly destabilized.
The setup is a powerful cold front attached to an occluding low pressure in the Great Lakes. Rain and storms will be common from Chicago to Arkansas with this front. Behind it, notice the big void between high pressure over Oklahoma and the storm departing to our north — this means a strong pressure gradient arrives Sunday night (post cold front passage) and Monday morning. It will be very gusty and turning sharply colder for Monday and Tuesday.
The current outlook for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center highlights a Level 2 “slight” risk for all of west Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois. A Level 1 “marginal” risk is in effect elsewhere in the green shading. Don’t get too fixated or caught up in what color your are under. To be honest, we think everyone has the same level of risk (small, but still enough to be cautious for) no matter what state / county / town you are in.
Ahead of these storms, we also expect some gusty wind later tonight. Some gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible, so be sure to secure outdoor furniture and holiday decorations.
As early as 4PM to 9PM there will be a few heavy showers and storms that form *ahead* of and separate of our cold front. These will be moving northeastward and could produce heavy rain, small hail, lightning, and strong winds. There even is a small chance one of these during this time could turn severe as well.
Then between 9PM and 4AM our potent cold front blows through from NW to SE across the entire area. We fully expect a squall-line to form on the front and produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning, thunder, and the potential for a damaging wind gust or tornado.
The tornado threat is conditional – as it typically is in these low instability high wind shear environments. There is ample wind shear aloft and a strengthening low level jet over 60 knots (70mph) at just 3,000 feet off the ground. The limiting factor will be the low amount of surface based CAPE (storm fuel / instability).
That being said, the wind shear is good enough that we need to monitor and be aware. Anywhere on that line of storms could be a damaging wind gust or tornado or two. Heavy rain though is a good bet for all regardless… and 1-2″ of rain (or more that get repeated, “training” storms) is expected in most locations.
Since these storms will be moving through overnight when many of us are in bed, be sure to have at least two ways to receive and hear warnings if they are issued for your area, including your WPSD Radar app & NOAA weather radio.
As always — when or if any watches and warnings are issued we will have coverage and updates through the app, on social media, and on TV all night as conditions warrant. Overall it’s a low risk but one to be aware of.
Check out the reality check coming by Monday morning. With still a stiff NW wind, there will be wind chills in the 20s Monday morning as air temps. fall into the 30s and 40s. It will feel cold, and actually like December again!
Meteorologist
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